Sunday, November 1, 2009

My apologies

After delaying my projections post because of my work schedule....technical difficulties at home kept me from finishing it up.

I have been dealing with a computer on it's last microchip for several months now and I am eagerly waiting for Black Friday for the upgrade.

I should be able to continue with the regularly-scheduled posts this week. So be sure to look for FULL Week 9 predictions beginning on Thursday and once again, I apologize for the troubles.

Thanks for reading.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Week 8 Projections (4 Early games)

UPDATED: 10/31/2009; 12:14 p.m.

I apologize for the delay in posting this. Things have been really hectic on the home front and I put in a long week at the full-time job (you see, until all of you realize that I am the king of fantasy projections and I start getting paid by advertisers, I need to work my Mon-Fri job).

Don't forget, you can email me with questions at any time. The email address is: fantasyfootballnerds@live.com

So, now without further delay, I give you the predictions for some of the early games. The late games and Monday night game predictions will come later today.


Miami (2-4) @ New York Jets (4-3)

The last time these two teams met, the Dolphins won a thriller on Monday Night Football. The Jets maintained a 13-10 halftime lead through a scoreless 3rd quarter and then the flood gates opened.

They exchanged scoring drives and watched the lead change several times before Ronnie Brown took a direct snap in the Wildcat formation for a 2-yard TD run with under 10 seconds left to seal the 31-27 win.

This game should play out more like the first half of that game went.

Final Score: Jets 20, Dolphins 17

Quarterbacks
Chad Henne- 185 yards pass, 0 TD, 1 INT
Mark Sanchez- 250 yards pass, 1 TD, 2 INT

Running Backs
Ronnie Brown- 85 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 14 yards
Ricky Williams- 40 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 15 yards
Thomas Jones- 45 yards rush, 1 TD 3 rec. 21 yards
Shonn Greene- 37 yards rush

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Ted Ginn Jr.- 4 rec. 31 yards
Davone Bess- 4 rec. 37 yards
Anthony Fasano- 3 rec. 22 yards
Braylon Edwards- 5 rec. 56 yards, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery- 4 rec. 45 yards
Dustin Keller- 3 rec. 27 yards
David Clowney- 3 rec. 40 yards


Seattle (2-4) @ Dallas (4-2)

Has anyone noticed that Dallas looked pretty good against Atlanta last Sunday? Has anyone noticed that Seattle is an absolute train wreck?

Enough said.

Final Score: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 24

Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck- 250 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT
Tony Romo- 235 yards pass, 2 TD, 0 INT

Running Backs
Julius Jones- 60 yards rush
Justin Forsett- 45 yards rush, 1 TD
Marion Barber- 75 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 23 yards
Tashard Choice- 25 yards rush / 3 rec. 31 yards
Felix Jones- 35 yards rush

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
T.J. Houshmanzadeh- 5 rec. 67 yards, 1 TD
Nate Burleson- 4 rec. 32 yards
Deion Branch- 3 rec. 26 yards
John Carlson- 5 rec. 51 yards, 1 TD
Miles Austin- 6 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Jason Witten- 6 rec. 61 yards, 1 TD
Roy Williams- 4 rec. 28 yards


Houston (4-3) @ Buffalo (3-4)

Buffalo is looking to build on a somewhat surprising win over Carolina - somewhat surprising. The Texans are trying to avoid dropping to .500 at the halfway point of the season.

The Bills have allowed the most yards and the 2nd most scores to running back this season, so look for Steve Slaton to continue his mid-season improvement. For those of you who spent a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick on Slaton and stuck with him (myself included) he is starting to pay off for you.

Matt Schaub - the NFL leader in passing yards and TD's - could get more yards than I project him out at, but he will have to work for them, as the Bills have only allowed 6 TD passes this season and have picked off the ball 12 times.

Terrell Owens has proven time and again that he is no longer a WR1 in the league. He isn't even a WR2 and is a borderline WR3 at best. Lee Evans however, has benefited from the change at quarterback.

Final Score: Bills 20, Texans 17

Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick- 234 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT
Matt Schaub- 210 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Steve Slaton- 110 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 38 yards
Marshawn Lynch- 70 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 12 yards
Fred Jackson- 24 yards rush / 1 rec. 8 yards

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Andre Johnson- 6 rec. 63 yards, 1 TD
Owen Daniels- 4 rec. 35 yards
Kevin Walter- 2 rec. 18 yards
Terrell Owens- 3 rec. 26 yards
Lee Evans- 6 rec. 65 yards, 1 TD


San Francisco @ Indianapolis

Much like last week's game against the Rams, I really have nothing to say about this game. This should be an easy win for the Colts....moving on.

Final Score: Colts 24, Niners 13

Quarterbacks
Alex Smith- 200 yards pass, 0 TD, 1 INT
Peyton Manning- 275 yards pass, 2 TD

Running Backs
Frank Gore- 90 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 15 yards
Joseph Addai- 80 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 38 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Vernon Davis- 7 rec. 84 yards
Michael Crabtree- 5 rec. 46 yards
Josh Morgan- 2 rec. 31 yards
Reggie Wayne- 6 rec. 81 yards
Dallas Clark- 5 rec. 48 yards, 1 TD
Austin Collie- 4 rec. 51 yards, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon- 3 rec. 43 yards

To be continued later today.......again, sorry for the delays. All will be published by tonight.

Thanks for reading.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Week 7 Winners and Losers

Happy Tuesday evening and welcome to the "Winners and Losers" for Week 7. Each Tuesday, I will take a look back at my predictions and find some things to gloat about and find some that I would like to take back.

Then, we get things started with Week 8 (Early games) predictions and stat projections on Thursday night.

The Excellent

Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 17 (Predict: Pitt 27, Minn 24)
Rashard Mendenhall- P: 68 yards rush / A: 69 yards rush
Adrian Peterson- P: 71 yards rush, 1 TD / A: 69 yards rush, 1 TD
New England 35, Tampa Bay 7 (Predict: NE 34, TB 10)
Tom Brady- P: 285 yards pass, 3 TD / A: 308 yards pass, 3 TD
Indianapolis 42, St. Louis 6 (Predict: Ind 41, STL 10)
Houston 24, San Francisco 21 (Predict: Hou 27, SF 24)
Matt Schaub- P: 250 yards pass, 2 TD, INT / A: 264 yards pass, 2 TD
Kevin Walter- P: 3 rec. 27 yards / A: 3 rec. 29 yards
Thomas Jones- P: 120 yards rush, 1 TD, 2 rec. 14 yards / A: 121 yards rush, 1 TD, 1 rec. 3 yards
Terrell Owens- P: 3 rec. 31 yards / A: 3 rec. 27 yards
Lee Evans- P: 6 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD / A: 5 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Anthony Fasano- P: 3 rec. 21 yards / A: 3 rec. 21 yards
Johnny Knox- P: 4 rec. 48 yards / A: 4 rec. 42 yards


The Good

Aaron Rodgers- Predict (P): 253 yards pass, 2 TD, 0 INT / Actual (A): 246 yards. 3 TD, 0 INT
Donald Driver- P: 8 rec. 78 yards, 1 TD / A: 2 rec. 84 yards, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes- P: 5 rec. 57 yards / A: 2 rec. 59 yards
Philip Rivers- P: 253 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT / A: 268 yards pass, 3 TD
Antonio Gates- P: 5 rec. 58 yards, 1 TD / A: 5 rec. 55 yards
Peyton Manning- P: 325 yards pass, 3 TD / A: 235 yards pass, 3 TD
Reggie Wayne- P: 8 rec. 100 yards, 1 TD / A: 7 rec. 83 yards, 1 TD
Steve Slaton- P: 75 yards rush, 1 TD, 5 rec. 42 yards / A: 67 yards rush, 1 TD, 4 rec. 22 yards, 1 TD
Jay Cutler- P: 270 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT / A: 251 yards pass, 1 TD, 3 INT
Kurt Warner- P: 220 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT / A: 231 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT
Anquan Boldin- P: 4 rec. 65 yards / A: 3 rec. 75 yards
Hakeem Nicks- P: 5 rec. 56 yards, 1 TD / A: 4 rec. 80 yards, 1 TD

The Bad and Ugly

Green Bay 31, Cleveland 3 (Predict GB 24, Cle 10)
Mohamed Massaquoi- P: 6 rec. 85 yards / A: 1 rec. 22 yards
Hines Ward- P: 8 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD / A: 1 rec. 3 yards
Dwayne Bowe- P: 6 rec. 72 yards, 1 TD / A: 2 rec. 11 yards, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson- P: 9 rec. 95 yards, 1 TD / A: 5 rec. 142 yards, 1 TD
New York Jets 38, Oakland 0 (Predict: NYJ 27, Oak 17)
Leon Washington- P: 65 yards rush, 1 TD, 4 rec. 42 yards / 6 yards rush & a broken fibula
Buffalo 20, Carolina 9 (Predict: Carolina 31, Buffalo 20) - I got the Buffalo part right.
New Orleans 46, Miami 34 (Predict: NO 27, Mia 20)
Cincinnati 45, Chicago 10 (Predict: Chi 24, Cin 21 (OT)) WOW!
Miles Austin- P: 4 rec. 59 yards, 1 TD / A: 6 rec. 171 yards, 2 TD
Brian Westbrook- P: 85 yards rush, 1 TD / A: 13 yards rush and a knee to the head.

Now these are just a few examples of my results. I hope you come to the same conclusion that I have....the formula works. Crunch the numbers for yourself. Over 80% of the projections I gave were within +/- 4 points in standard scoring leagues (Over 50% were within +/- 1 point with 96% within +/- 7 points).

Let's see if the pattern continues. Tune in Thursday as I break down the following games: HOU/BUF, SF/IND, MIA/NYJ, SEA/DAL, NYG/PHI, CLE/CHI, STL/DET, DEN/BAL.

Thanks for reading.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Week 7 Projections (Part 3: Sunday and Monday games)

All right folks. Get settled in and let's take a look at the Sunday night and Monday night games in Week 7 of the NFL season.

As always, email any questions you may have about lineups, trades or general fantasy football questions to fantasyfootballnerds@live.com or simply leave comments in this or other posts. Your questions will be answered as soon as possible (Within 24 hours most days with a guarantee of prior to kickoff each week).

Arizona (3-2) @ New York Giants (5-1)

This game has all the makings of a old-fashioned shoot-out. The Giants, led by the younger Manning, take on the veteran Kurt Warner and the pass-heavy Cardinals in a clash of the last two NFC Champions.

Wide receivers and quarterbacks are solid plays this week. Running backs, be warned. The Cardinals are boasting the top run defense in the league, but the Giants have excellent run-blocking and that could put a dent in the armor for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw (assuming he plays) to bust through.

The Giants top trio of receivers (Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks) could potentially all hit the century mark in yards and/or a TD each. Anquan Boldin is questionable for Arizona so if he is out, look for Steve Breaston to join Larry Fitzgerald in the 100-yard receiving club as well.

Fantasy owners who have been frustrated with Brandon Jacobs probably won't get much relief in this game, though he may get a TD to go with his limited yards. Bradshaw is listed as probable for Week 7 and should play, though how much remains a mystery.

Tim Hightower remains the number one option at RB for the pass-heavy Cardinals, though rookie Beanie Wells has been chipping away at Hightower's carries.

Final Score: New York 34, Arizona 27

Quarterbacks
Kurt Warner- 220 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT
Eli Manning- 270 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Tim Hightower- 45 yards rush / 4 rec. 37 yards
Beanie Wells- 30 yards rush / 1 rec. 5 yards
Brandon Jacobs- 60 yards rush, 1 TD / 1 rec. 5 yards
Ahmad Bradshaw- 53 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 25 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Larry Fitzgerald- 9 rec. 110 yards, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin (if he plays)- 4 rec. 65 yards
Steve Breaston- 5 rec. 47 yards, 1 TD (7 rec. 89 yards, 1 TD if Boldin is out)
Steve Smith- 8 rec. 91 yards, 1 TD
Mario Manningham- 6 rec. 67 yards
Hakeem Nicks- 5 rec. 56 yards, 1 TD


Philadelphia (3-2) @ Washington (2-4)

The Philadelphia Eagles....are pissed. They were just embarrassed at the hands of the Oakland Raiders of all teams. The Redskins are a mess and the Eagles should come into D.C. and wipe the floor with the Skins.

I expect big games from Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and the Eagles Def/ST. DeSean Jackson will run at least one kick back for a TD this week and I predict one Jason Campbell INT will go back for one as well. People will be switching channels early to watch Game 7 of the ALCS (assuming the Yankees don't win Sunday night).

Outside of Chris Cooley (which is a pretty safe bet, but not a guarantee) there is not a single player on the Redskins worth starting. Not even Clinton Portis, who probably won't be able to get his footing against this Eagles defense.

Final Score: Philadelphia 38, Washington 10

Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb- 185 yards pass, 1 TD, 0 INT / 35 yards rush, 1 TD
Jason Campbell- 200 yards pass, 1 TD, 2 INT

Running Backs
Brian Westbrook- 85 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 27 yards
LeSean McCoy- 31 yards rush / 2 rec. 16 yards
Clinton Portis- 75 yards rush / 2 rec. 15 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brent Celek- 5 rec. 46 yards, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson- 6 rec. 67 yards
Jeremy Maclin- 4 rec. 36 yards
Santana Moss- 4 rec. 46 yards
Chris Cooley- 5 rec. 45 yards, 1 TD
Antwaan Randle El- 3 rec. 24 yards


That's it for the projections and the predictions and the nerdery for this week. Be sure to check back Tuesday for my Winners and Losers of Week 7 column and then we will get it started again for Week 8 on Thursday.

Good luck to all players this week and thanks for reading.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Week 7 Preview (Part 2)

Looking for fantasy football projected stats and fantasy advice? You've come to the right place. Welcome to the nerdery! The newest, nerdiest place to get your nerd on. Yesterday, I went through all the early games and gave you a little insight as well as projected stats for your key fantasy players.

You'll find stats for Favre, Big Ben, AP, LT2 and a whole slough of other players with fancy nicknames. You won't find stats for guys named Leach, Wynn, Jones Drew or Sims-Walker. The first two because they are players that should never be on your fantasy team. The latter two because they are on BYE this week.

I also don't detail projections for kickers or defenses but if you really want to know, just ask. The email address is: fantasyfootballnerds@live.com Or you can just look at the projected score, subtract the projected passing and rushing TD's and the difference is the field goals and special teams TD's I am expecting.

Now then, on with the late games.

New York Jets (3-3) @ Oakland (2-4)

The Raiders stunned the Philadelphia Eagles for their 2nd win of the season and are looking to keep the high going against the Jets. The Jets are coming off quite possibly the most embarrassing loss of the season, where despite Thomas Jones running for 210 yards, Mark Sanchez's 5 interceptions kept the Bills in the game, who won on a field goal in overtime.

So, the Raiders are looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 16 and 17 last year. Not a remarkably long time given the recent string of ineptitude.

The rookie Mark Sanchez faces his first real bounce back game after giving his best Jake Delhomme impression throwing for under 200 yards with 0 TD and 5 INT in Week 6. The problem remains; who will catch the ball? Jerricho Cotchery is out which leaves Braylon Edwards as the No. 1 option. Which means Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha, who is healthy, will be shadowing Edwards. Which means trouble.

Thomas Jones ran for over 200 yards last week and Leon Washington combined for over 120 yards. Look for similar numbers this week against a putrid Raiders offense. Okay, maybe not 300 yards on the ground between them, but should be over 200.

There are no Raiders offensive players worth playing....NONE! If you have JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas or any other Raider, trade them for a tuna sandwich a bag of chips and a diet coke. Your right, that's too much. Drop the bag of chips.

Final Score: New York 27 , Oakland 17

Quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez- 234 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT
JaMarcus Russell- 190 yards pass (maybe), 0 TD, 2 INT

Running Backs
Thomas Jones- 120 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 14 yards
Leon Washington- 65 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 42 yards
Michael Bush- 55 yards rush, 1 TD / 1 rec. 6 yards
Justin Fargas- 50 yards rush / 1 rec. 4 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Braylon Edwards- 6 rec. 61 yards
Dustin Keller- 5 rec. 64 yards, 1 TD
David Clowney- 2 rec. 27 yards
Zach Miller- 5 rec. 48 yards
Louis Murphy- 3 rec. 24 yards


Buffalo (2-4) @ Carolina (2-3)

The Bills needed overtime to beat the Jets last week. Now they go from one quarterback doing a Jake Delhomme impression to the real thing. Bu they will roll into Carolina without the services of QB Trent Edwards, who suffered a concussion in the Jets game. Let's face it, the Bills have been without the services of Edwards all season. Replacing him under center is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Good news Lee Evans owners! Fitzpatrick likes to throw to Evans so if you have been waiting for Evans to have his breakout game, this could be it....probably not, but it could be.

Carolina has rediscovered their running game, much to the chagrin of the other Steve Smith (yes that's right...HE is the other Steve Smith now). DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should carve up the same Bills defense that Thomas Jones and Leon Washington just ran up 300+ yards on.

Final Score: Carolina 31, Buffalo 20

Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick- 170 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT
Jake Delhomme- 183 yards pass, 1 TD, 2 INT

Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch- 100 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 35 yards
Fred Jackson- 64 yards rush / 2 rec. 17 yards
DeAngelo Williams- 135 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 20 yards
Jonathan Stewart- 100 yards rush, 1 TD

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Terrell Owens- 3 rec. 31 yards
Lee Evans- 6 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Steve Smith- 5 rec. 67 yards
Muhsin Muhammad- 4 rec. 49 yards
Jeff King- 4 rec. 39 yards, 1 TD


New Orleans (5-0) @ Miami (2-3)

Isn't it time that Drew Brees came back down to Earth? Probably not this week. Miami's defense is particularly good at stopping the run, so it will be up to Brees to throw the ball early and often to compensate for the lack of running.

Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush are not great options this week (except Bush, whose value is in the passing game anyways). Miami's running game however, is in for some decent numbers - especially out of the Wildcat.

Miami and New Orleans rank 6th and 4th respectively in fantasy points allowed to running backs. But since Chad Henne is only a marginal option at quarterback, look for the Wildcat...a lot. New Orleans should be able to pull off a road win, but the Dolphins will make the Saints sweat...at least for the first half.

Final Score: New Orleans 27, Miami 20

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees- 240 yards pass, 2 TD, 0 INT (very conservative estimate)
Chad Henne- 228 yards pass, 1 TD, 3 INT

Running Backs
Pierre Thomas- 47 yards rush, 0 TD / 2 rec. 14 yards
Mike Bell- 24 yards rush, 1 TD
Reggie Bush- 11 yards rush / 5 rec. 41 yards, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown- 32 yards rush / 3 rec. 21 yards / 27 yards pass
Ricky Williams- 24 yards rush. 1 TD / 3 rec. 28 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marques Colston- 8 rec. 74 yards
Lance Moore- 3 rec. 27 yards
Devery Henderson- 2 rec. 29 yards
Robert Meachem- 3 rec. 23 yards
Jeremy Shockey- 6 rec. 57 yards, 1 TD
Ted Ginn Jr.- 5 rec. 63 yards, 1 TD
Davone Bess- 4 rec. 36 yards
Anthony Fasano- 3 rec. 21 yards
Greg Camarillo- 3 rec. 31 yards


Chicago (3-2) @ Cincinnati (4-2)

Bengals and Bears, oh my! This one could be a high scoring affair. Both teams are average at defending against the run, but Cincy has been terrible at defending the pass. Matt Schaub just lit up the Bengals secondary for 392 yards and four scores, in Cincy. Calling Jay Cutler, your turn to shine is here.

Chicago's offense is beginning to fire on all cylinders and would be virtually unstoppable if Matt Forte can ever get it going. In five games, the only one in which Forte has had over 70 yards rushing was against the Lions and he still only scored once - his lone TD this season.

What does Chad Ochocinco have in store for Chicago? Any special TD dance in reserve? Who knows, who cares. Come Monday, we will all be talking about Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox more than Ocho Stinko.

Final Score: Chicago 24, Cincinnati 21 (OT)

Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler- 270 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT
Carson Palmer- 240 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Matt Forte- 75 yards rush, 0 TD / 5 rec. 41 yards, 1 TD
Cedric Benson- 80 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 9 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Earl Bennett- 5 rec. 61 yards, 1 TD
Johnny Knox- 4 rec. 48 yards
Devin Hester- 5 rec. 53 yards
Greg Olsen- 5 rec. 58 yards
Chad Ochocinco- 6 rec. 67 yards, 1 TD
Andre Caldwell- 5 rec. 57 yards
Laveranues Coles- 4 rec. 34 yards


Atlanta (4-1) @ Dallas (3-2)

Dallas is coming off a BYE and looking forward to the return of a healthy Marion Barber to the backfield. Well, he is listed as probable but is expected to start. The three-headed monster of Barber, Tashard Choice and Felix Jones (who is expected to play as well) will give fantasy owners fits. Who know which one will play when and for how long? If you have other options at RB this week, it would be best to avoid all three.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be looking to air it out against a weak Cowboys secondary. You should expect big numbers from and start if you own; Ryan, Roddy White and/or Tony Gonzalez.

You should not however, expect the same from Tony Romo, or any Dallas receiver. Despite the fact that Miles Austin is expected to start for the Boys, I doubt he will come anywhere near the numbers he put up in Week 5. I think Dallas wins the game thanks to the leg of Nick Folk more than anyone else.

Final Score: Dallas 30, Atlanta 27

Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan- 264 yards pass, 2 TD, 0 INT
Tony Romo- 251 yards pass 2 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Michael Turner- 82 yards rush, 1 TD
Marion Barber- 61 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 14 yards
Tashard Choice- 52 yards rush / 1 rec. 13 yards
Felix Jones- 31 yards rush

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Roddy White- 8 rec. 110 yards, 1 TD
Tony Gonzalez- 5 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Michael Jenkins- 3 rec. 31 yards
Jason Witten- 7 rec. 78 yards, 1 TD
Miles Austin- 4 rec. 59 yards, 1 TD
Patrick Crayton- 2 rec. 16 yards
Roy Williams- 4 rec. 65 yards

All right, that's it for the late games. Be sure to check back tomorrow for the projected stats from the Sunday night and Monday night games.

See you tomorrow.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Week 7 Preview (Part 1)

I'm going to mix things up a little bit here. Instead of giving you just a list of numbers, I am going to break down each week's games from a fantasy perspective and then give you the projected stats of all the key players in the game.

I won't bother giving you Vonta Leach's projected 15 yards on 4 carries because honestly....how many of you have Vonta Leach on your roster? And if you do, shame on you.

So now, each week I will go through the early games on Thursday, the late games on Friday and the Sunday night and Monday night games on Saturday. As always, feel free to submit any and all fantasy-related questions my way. Lineup advice, trade advice, life advice...if I can help.

The email address is: fantasyfootballnerds@live.com

I have already received several emails from curious fantasy players wondering what the site is all about....and a few emails of thanks for helping them last week during our first week of operation.

Now, here are the early games.

Green Bay (3-2) @ Cleveland (1-5)

The Packers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this year (and they have had their BYE week). Too bad the Browns don't have a quarterback worthy of putting up such gaudy numbers. The Packers are giving up an average of 205/yards passing with just under 2 TD and 2 INT per game. With Derek Anderson under center for Cleveland, I would lean towards the INT end of that equation.

Meanwhile, the Browns are giving up over 250 yards per game to quarterbacks and Aaron Rodgers is more than capable of posting those types of numbers.

On the ground, Jamal Lewis appears to be healthy, but for the second week in a row, faces a tough run defense that won't allow him to get his footing. The Packers are allowing under 100 yards per game on the ground and I don't see why that would change here. They have also yielded only a single rushing TD this season. That is bound to change eventually but I don't see it happening with Lewis or his handcuff, Jerome Harrison.

Ryan Grant leads the ground attack for the Pack and I must admit, I was skeptical at his ability to stay healthy this season. But with Rodgers airing it out early and often, they haven't needed Grant to grind it out as much. That being said, Cleveland has yielded the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs this season and Grant has to be licking his chops.

Who exactly is catching the ball in Cleveland? Ever since Braylon Edwards left, there has been no real go-to receiver on the Browns. All right, let's face it....even when Edwards was here there was no go-to receiver on the Browns. Mohamed Massaquoi has stepped up and filled the gloves of Edwards and has dropped the ball less than Edwards used to. But he has yet to record a TD for the season. Same story with Mike Furrey, Brian Robiskie and Josh Cribbs (who is used more as another RB). Chansi Stuckey seems to fill well in for the greasy-handed Edwards, having been targeted 11 times in the last three games, catching just one of those for 8 yards.

On the other side, Green Bay has a talented core of receivers led by Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley, who is snatching up playing time from the once-reliable Donald Lee. One thing Cleveland has done fairly well is contain the TE's, so taper your expectations from Finley. But open the flood gates for the other receivers......Jordy Nelson may even sneak in there with a few catches.

Final Score: Green Bay 24, Cleveland 10

Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers- 253 yards pass, 2 TD, 0 Int
Derek Anderson- 160 yards pass, 1 TD, 3 Int

Running Backs
Ryan Grant- 96 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 35 yards
Jamal Lewis- 65 yards rush, 0 TD / 2 rec. 9 yards
Jerome Harrison- 30 yards rush, 0 TD / 1 rec. 12 yards

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Donald Driver- 8 rec. 78 yards, 1 TD
Greg Jennings- 7 rec. 59 yards, 1 TD
Jermichael Finley- 3 rec. 27 yards
James Jones- 4 rec. 42 yards
Mohamed Massaquoi- 6 rec. 85 yards
Josh Cribbs- 3 rec. 27 yards, 25 rush yards


Minnesota (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (4-2)

Brett Favre vs. Big Ben. Too bad the matchup we will be talking about after the game is Sidney Rice vs. Hines Ward. Both teams have tremendous running games with Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall. But going up against two very good run defenses (Minnesota: 8th least FP allowed, Pittsburgh: Least FP allowed) this game will be won in the air.

Brett Favre has looked like the Favre that started last season with the Jets. He has 12 TD passes on the season to only 2 INT. Yes, you read that right. Big Ben has become a throwing machine as the Steelers have officially become a pass-first team. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 TD passes and 6 INT but has completed an NFL-best 72.5% of his attempts, while turning TE Heath Miller into a legitimate TE1 in most formats. This being a home game for the Steelers, I think we can count on at least 1 INT of Favre and a lower yard total than we have seen so far.

On the ground, good running backs are stopped by good defenses. Great running backs still find their yards. AP is a great running back and he will find holes in this Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers have only allowed 56 yards/game to running backs and have allowed only 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD this season. Look for AP to get the 2nd rushing TD the Steelers have given up this year. Chester Taylor could be used quite a bit in the passing game. It wouldn't surprise me if he scores through the air this week.

Mendenhall became the No. 1 RB on the Steelers depth chart despite the fact that Willie Parker is back though not 100%. Do I smell a committee? Not likely. But Parker will get in there and get some carries. Mendenhall was limited in practice on Wednesday (bruised knee) and that may affect him come Sunday so keep an eye on that. If you own Mewelde Moore, you may want to keep him in mind if Mendenhall is all of a sudden inactive.

Like I said, this game may come down to the matchup of Hines Ward and Brett Favre's new favorite target Sidney Rice. Rice went off for 176 yards against the Ravens last week but don't expect that again. Instead, you should see numbers similar to what he posted against the Niners or Green Bay. Ward has been benefiting from the new pass-heavy offense. He has 3 games of over 100 yards receiving and has scored in each of the last two games.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 24

Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger- 270 yards pass, 3 TD, 1 INT
Brett Favre- 220 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Adrian Peterson- 71 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 16 yards
Chester Taylor- 14 yards rush / 3 rec. 27 yards
Rashard Mendenhall- 68 yards rush / 3 rec. 26 yards, 1 TD
Willie Parker- 20 yards rush / 2 rec. 14 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Sidney Rice- 7 rec. 65 yards, 1 TD
Percy Harvin- 4 rec. 37 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe- 5 rec. 54 yards, 1 TD
Bernard Berrian- 3 rec. 21 yards
Hines Ward- 8 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes- 5 rec. 57 yards
Heath Miller- 7 rec. 65 yards, 1 TD
Mike Wallace- 4 rec. 33 yards


San Diego (2-3) @ Kansas City (1-5)

Kansas City is coming off their first win of the season. San Diego is coming off a very disappointing loss on Monday night. The Chiefs should be scared....very scared. But so should the Chargers' front seven. The Chargers have been absolutely anemic in the running game and abysmal at stopping the run. The Chargers have allowed an average of 128 rushing yards per game and Larry Johnson should see a trip home against San Diego as the cure to his ails.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles have not had anything to write home about this season. While Sproles has managed one rushing TD and one receiving TD this season, Tomlinson has only the one rushing TD in Week 1 against Oakland. If LT2 is truly healthy, he should be able to push KC around for about 100 total yards.

Matt Cassel or Philip Rivers? Last season that was actually a tough question. This season, Rivers continues to prove he is a top-tier quarterback while Cassel has come to grips with the fact that he's not in New England anymore. Both have thrown 7 TD passes so far this year but Rivers has twice as many yards and has played in the same number of games (Cassel missed Week 1 and Rivers had a BYE in Week 5).

Benefiting from Rivers' arm is Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Suffering from Cassel's lack of an aerial assault is Dwayne Bowe and anyone else you can name on KC's roster. Can you name one? Bobby Wade and Mark Bradley make a catch here and there but they are not V-Jax and Gates. This game should be a no contest early.

Final Score: San Diego 31, Kansas City 20

Quarterbacks
Matt Cassel- 224 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT
Philip Rivers- 253 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Larry Johnson- 93 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 31 yards
Jamaal Charles- 34 yards rush / 2 rec. 12 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson- 84 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 18 yards
Darren Sproles- 24 yards rush / 3 rec. 21 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Dwayne Bowe- 6 rec. 72 yards, 1 TD
Bobby Wade- 4 rec. 39 yards
Mark Bradley- 4 rec. 28 yards
Vincent Jackson- 9 rec. 95 yards, 1 TD
Antonio Gates- 5 rec. 58 yards, 1 TD
Malcolm Floyd- 3 rec. 36 yards
Chris Chambers- 2 rec. 24 yards


New England (4-2) vs. Tampa Bay (0-6) in London

London calling! Okay, how many times have you read that this week? Sorry. This game is actually a pretty pathetic example of good football. Maybe that's why we sent this one to London....because we don't care to watch it.

Tom Brady threw 6 TD passes last week in the snow, including an NFL record 5 in the 2nd quarter alone. The field conditions in London are usually damp and soggy and should mean that the ground game won't get started. Wait, this is the Patriots and Bucs, the ground game wasn't getting started anyways. If Sammy Morris is out, Laurence Maroney may make for a pretty good play again this week. Keep an eye on his status.

Look for Brady to connect with his favorite targets Randy Moss and Wes Welker early and often as usual. Look for Tampa to.....throw in the towel by halftime.

Ladies and gentleman of Europe....we present to you, the National Football League!

Final Score: New England 34, Tampa Bay 10

Quarterbacks
Tom Brady- 285 yards pass, 3 TD, 0 INT
Josh Johnson- 193 yards pass, 1 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Laurence Maroney- 89 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 14 yards
Kevin Faulk- 24 yards rush / 3 rec. 24 yards
Cadillac Williams- 72 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 26 yards
Derrick Ward- 25 yards rush

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Randy Moss- 10 rec. 110 yards, 2 TD
Wes Welker- 9 rec. 85 yards, 1 TD
Ben Watson- 4 rec. 35 yards
Antonio Bryant- 6 rec. 75 yards, 1 TD
Kellen Winslow- 5 rec. 56 yards
Sammie Stroughter- 3 rec. 35 yards


Indianapolis (5-0) @ St. Louis (0-6)

I really don't have anything to say about this game. The Rams are this year's Lions. Which begs the question, should the saying "In like a Lion, out like a Lamb" be changed to "In like the Lions, out like the Rams"? Just a thought.

Peyton Manning and friends have had a week off to decide just how they want to stick it to the lowly Rams. This is their only road game before three straight home games against the Niners, Texans and Patriots. I don't think they will be looking ahead, especially since they just had a week off.

The Rams will NOT stun the Colts in some thrilling upset victory. The only question will be whether the Rams will get shut out for the 3rd time this season or not.

Final Score: Indianapolis 41, St. Louis 10

Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning- 325 yards pass, 3 TD
Marc Bulger- 210 yards pass, 1 INT

Running Backs
Joseph Addai- 95 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 26 yards
Donald Brown- 42 yards rush, 1 TD / 2 rec. 15 yards
Steven Jackson- 87 yards rush, 1 TD / 4 rec. 36 yards

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Reggie Wayne- 8 rec. 100 yards, 1 TD
Dallas Clark- 7 rec. 78 yards, 1 TD
Austin Collie- 6 rec. 72 yards, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon- 3 rec. 49 yards
Donnie Avery- 6 rec. 62 yards
Keenan Burton- 5 rec. 38 yards


San Francisco (3-2) @ Houston (3-3)

This could get ugly....it could also be really boring. Houston is pretty bad at stopping the run and the Niners have Glen Coffee who has been filling in well for the injured Frank Gore. Gore should be back this week but will be spelled by the rookie to keep him fresh.

The Texans have multiple weapons on offense, led by QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton, who has finally begun to perform the way we thought he would. But Slaton has more lost fumbles than rushing TD's this season (3 to 1) and the Niners defense will be looking to strip the ball early and often coming off a BYE week. A BYE week which came after they were embarrassed at home by the Falcons.

1st round draft pick Michael Crabtree is slated to start for the Niners for the first time this year and his influence is truly an X-factor in this game. The Texans should win, but they should've beat the Jaguars in Week 3.

Final Score: Houston 27, San Francisco 24

Quarterbacks
Shaun Hill- 232 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT
Matt Schaub- 250 yards pass, 2 TD, 1 INT

Running Backs
Frank Gore- 91 yards rush, 1 TD / 3 rec. 24 yards
Glen Coffee- 35 yards rush / 2 rec. 15 yards
Steve Slaton- 75 yards rush, 1 TD / 5 rec. 42 yards

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Vernon Davis- 6 rec. 64 yards, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree- 4 rec. 39 yards, 1 TD
Josh Morgan- 3 rec. 26 yards
Andre Johnson- 7 rec. 85 yards, 1 TD
Owen Daniels- 5 rec. 56 yards, 1 TD
Kevin Walter- 3 rec. 27 yards

That's it for the early games. Remember, you can get more advice and info anytime by emailing the Nerd Guru at: fantasyfootballnerds@live.com

See you tomorrow with Sunday's afternoon games.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Week 7 QB Projections

Hello everyone and welcome to the start of Week 7. Hopefully you all achieved success in Week 6. Personally, I came in 3rd for the week in my rotisserie league and won all 3 of my head-to-head leagues.

But enough about me....let's talk about you. The email inbox is open for all your fantasy questions....fantasy football that is. The email address is:

fantasyfootballnerds@live.com

Now, here are Week 7's QB projected stats in order of projected passing yards.

Player
Jay Cutler- 271 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Ben Roethlisberger- 270 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Eli Manning- 270 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Matt Ryan- 264, 2 TD, 0 Int
Peyton Manning- 262, 2 TD, 1 Int
Aaron Rodgers- 253, 2 TD, 0 Int
Philip Rivers- 253, 2 TD, 1 Int
Tony Romo- 251, 1 TD, 1 Int
Matt Schaub- 250, 2 TD, 1 Int
Drew Brees- 240, 2 TD, 0 Int
Carson Palmer- 240, 1 TD, 1 Int
Mark Sanchez- 234, 1 TD, 1 Int
Shaun Hill- 232, 1 TD, 1 Int
Chad Henne- 228, 1 TD, 3 Int
Matt Cassel- 224, 1 TD, 1 Int
Tom Brady- 220, 2 TD, 0 Int
Brett Favre- 220, 2 TD, 1 Int
Marc Bulger- 210, 0 TD, 1 Int
Kurt Warner- 200, 2 TD, 1 Int
Jason Campbell- 200, 1 TD, 2 Int
Derek Anderson- 200, 1 TD, 2 Int
Josh Johnson- 193, 1 TD, 1 Int
JaMarcus Russell- 190, 0 TD, 2 Int
Donovan McNabb- 185, 1 TD, 0 Int, 1 rush TD
Jake Delhomme- 183, 1 TD, 2 Int
Trent Edwards / Ryan Fitzpatrick- 170, 1 TD, 1 Int